Quick Bytes
- Ray Dalio estimates a 35-40% chance of a U.S. civil war around the election.
- Political tensions and the concept of a “national divorce” fuel civil war concerns.
- Dalio advises diversifying assets internationally, highlighting stable regions.
Investor Ray Dalio Discusses U.S. Stability and Asset Diversification
Ray Dalio, the founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, has expressed concerns about the stability of the United States, suggesting the possibility of a civil war is not as far-fetched as it once seemed.
With the upcoming presidential election seen as a pivotal moment, Dalio believes the nation is at a brink, with a significant chance of civil unrest. The January 6 Capitol riots and political rhetoric, such as the “national divorce” suggested by Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, have only heightened these concerns. A poll indicates that a notable portion of U.S. voters share this apprehension, with 41% believing a civil war could happen in the next five years.
While political scientist Barbara F. Walter advocates for investing in communities to strengthen democracy, Dalio recommends a different strategy. He suggests maintaining investments in the most innovative and capitalist parts of the U.S. while moving other assets to geopolitically neutral and financially stable countries. He names India, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and some Gulf states as attractive options for asset diversification. This approach is echoed by Warren Buffett’s recent investment in Chubb, which moved its operations to Switzerland.
Image Credits
- Levi Meir Clancy: Ray Dalio discussing potential civil unrest and asset diversification.
